Risk is our business
Well, you don’t get ahead if you don’t take risks.
-Heidi Klum, Project Runway 4
All my life I’ve been a fan of favorites — I’m from Chicago and was around during the second threepeat run of NBA championships from 1996-1998.
I followed Phil Jackson over to the L.A. Lakers and one of my best moments was sitting in a parking lot near ARCO Arena and the Sacramento Airport after visiting my girlfriend at the time and listening to the Lakers beat Sacramento on the road, in overtime, 116-102 in OT of the 2002 Western Conference Finals.
(It was especially sweet after sitting in the first class section of a Sacramento-bound airplane and having to endure stuffy businessmen tell me it “was the King’s year.”).
I graduated from the University of North Carolina and there’s nothing better than a win over Duke at Cameron Indoor Arena.
But it took me until this past year, my boss’ boss and the Floyd Mayweather-Ricky Hatton fight to understand the power and value of the underdog.
I used it in picking Giants, +11 in the Super Bowl and Eli Manning as MVP. Are things really as lopsided as they’ve been made out to be.
Or are all things closer to equal, which in that case would make 11 points for a team that could win the Super Bowl a pretty good thing.
I think of this in part thanks to Brian Townsend’s Cardrunners video konking out on me with 10 minutes left to go.
Instead of watching the whole thing over, I decided to flip my HDTV back to cable mode and see what was on.
I found, of all things, Project Runway 4 and a choice that got me out of my seat and yelling in the air as loud as when Jordan once hit a buzzer-beater trey to beat the Charlotte Hornets by a single point about this time more than a decade ago.
You see, my 25-to-1 dog was picked to be in contention for the final contest next week against three other people.
Blame Susanne for having me knowing anything about the show. We’d eat dinner and then have the TV on, with me playing six tables on Full Tilt, Bodog or Poker Stars, with one iPod headphone in my ear to hear the action.
Even the beautiful Klum would grate my ears when she would say with firing-squad precision, “One of you will be in … the other out,” since it reminded me of a co-worker.
But then I saw something interesting — a huge favorite and a struggle for everyone else as underdogs.
Every competition has its Tom Brady and in Project Runway 4, it’s Christian Siriano. Everything he makes looks like it’s from a fashion magazine. The competition will be his to lose.
But it’s not set in stone; it’s his to lose. There’s also Rami, a talented Israeli designer who is proficient but is criticized sometimes for not taking chances; Jillian Lewis, a talented New Yorker (who I have at 2.25/1 to win).
You can’t bet on Christian because there’s very little money in it. Plus he may not win.
But the value is in Chris March, a San Francisco designer who got on the show with a portfolio that included him wearing all of his designs. He is flashy and, with the planets aligned, could easily win.
I’d say his actual odds are much better than 25/1, although he has to compete in a wild card “playoff” design contest against Rami just to join Jillian in the chance of taking down fashion’s Tom Brady.
I’m going to tell you right now that more often than not I may not win this prop; I’d say that 90 percent, maybe 95 percent of the time Christian will go on to win.
But, like that line in True Romance, every now and then it goes the other way.
And that’s where the money is.
And that’s where the glory is, clinking glasses with Susanne at Bacchanalia, the A-Town’s best restaurant (although not so good that I’d be having it rub elbows with Las Vegas’ Michael Mina) to celebrate what’s so far a slam-dunk of a year.
It may not happen. It probably won’t happen.
But I’ve already found something that takes years for people to achieve.
Happiness is picking the right 25-to-1 dog.
Source: Risk is our business
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